Kalshi · signed before Dec 2026
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near-term rung
SpaceX went public in June 2026 under ticker SPCX. Earlier this month, at the All-In Summit, Elon Musk gave his most direct hint yet that the two companies he controls could combine — and Wall Street noticed. Here's how the live odds sit across Kalshi and Polymarket, and what's being reported right now.
Nine months of reported prices, oldest to newest. The trend is up — but the two platforms rarely agree on the exact number, and the gap between them is itself worth watching.
Live contracts, oldest deadline to newest. Kalshi is the spine (0 dates). Polymarket fills the deadlines Kalshi doesn't list (0 fills). Prices refresh every 20 seconds.
Reverse chronological. Curated All-In coverage plus live headlines as they land.
Modelled as a hazard process on the live Kalshi ladder rather than pricing each deadline in isolation. The headline is the longest Kalshi contract; the path to it is the month-to-month hazard implied by the rungs in between.
Resolves Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure resulting in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation under common corporate ownership before the contract date.
The announcement must come through official company channels — press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified official accounts, or statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
A stage comment, a hint, or an analyst note — including everything on this page from the All-In Summit — is not sufficient on its own. Rumour and unconfirmed reporting do not resolve the market.
We track every repricing, cross-reference it against the news that caused it, and flag when two venues disagree. Seven days free, no card.