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Market requests · Free · Reviewed weekly

Request
a market.

There's a question you want priced and nobody is modelling it. Tell us what it is. We build the probability model, track it against live venues where the market exists - and put the case to those venues where it doesn't.

What we do
  • Build an independent probability model for your question
  • Track it across Polymarket, Kalshi and ForecastEx
  • Publish the model and its accuracy record
  • Submit well-formed questions to venues for listing
What we don't
  • Operate an exchange or list contracts ourselves
  • Accept stakes, hold funds or set odds
  • Guarantee any venue will list your question
  • Give financial advice on what to do about it
The form

What should we model?

The better specified the question, the more likely it gets modelled - and the more likely a venue will consider listing it. A question that can't be resolved unambiguously can't be priced by anyone.

Phrase it so the answer can only be yes or no. Avoid "will X be significant" - significant to whom?
What exact event makes this YES, and which published source settles it? This is the field most requests get wrong.
The authority whose published data decides it.
If it's live somewhere, we'll price against it rather than start from scratch.
Institutional requests get routed differently - private models are available under the Institutional tier.
Free. No account needed. We review requests weekly and reply either way - including when we decide not to model something, and why.
After you send

What actually happens.

01
We check it can resolve
Most rejected requests fail here - not because the question is uninteresting, but because no published source could settle it unambiguously.
02
We model it
If it's live on a venue, we price against the market and publish the gap. If it isn't, we publish the model standalone and it enters the accuracy record like any other.
03
We put it to the venues
Polymarket and Kalshi both accept market suggestions. A well-specified question with a named resolution source has a far better chance than a loose one. We can't promise a listing - only that we'll make the case.