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ID: 630805INFO
Polymarket
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Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Volume: $330K | Liq: $102K

YES
65%
NO
36%

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Market Odds
65%
No 36%
How This Resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. It settles only once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. The Democratic option covers solely the party's nominee and excludes independents or other-party candidates.

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Person I

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Market Info

Probability0%
Volume$330K
Liquidity$102K

Resolution

SourcePolymarket
Contract ID630805
ExchangeView market

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Execution_Price
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News

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Cross-Platform Arbitrage Scanner
PolymarketKalshi

Matched with: Starmer out by...?(score: 74%)

Outcome
Kalshi
Polymarket
Spread
Strategy
May 19
8.0%
14.0%
4%
PROFIT
May 15
4.0%
4.0%
-3.4%
NO PROFIT

Cross-Platform Arbitrage
Locked for Free Tier

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